Extended deterrence and the future of the nuclear nonproliferation treaty

Extended deterrence was a major pillar of the NPT at its origin. As the Soviet threat diminished and then disappeared, this was forgotten by most policy makers and observers. Recently, the role of extended deterrence in preventing nuclear proliferation has regained much of its salience. Two factors are responsible for that change: the growing threats from Russia, China and North Korea; and increasing allied doubts about the solidity of U.S. security commitments. While allied acquisition of nuclear weapons does not appear imminent, that danger could increase unless the United States reinforces its security commitments in word and deed. Failing that, the future of the NPT may be bleak.