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OBJECTIVE: This study sought to examine the usefulness of non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels in predicting future dyslipidemia and other cardiovascular risk in adulthood. METHODS: The study sample consisted of a longitudinal cohort of subjects (n = 1163; 30.1% black and 55.4% female) who participated in the Bogalusa Heart Study both as children at 5 to 14 years of age and as adults 27 years later. RESULTS: The childhood level of non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, like low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, was the best predictor of the adulthood level; the next best predictor for both variables was the change in BMI from childhood to adulthood. Furthermore, those in the age-, race-, and gender-specific top quartile, compared with those in the bottom quartile, of non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels in childhood were 4.5 and 3.5 times more likely, respectively, to develop adult dyslipidemia, independent of baseline BMI and BMI change after 27 years. Although, at equivalent cutoff points, childhood high-risk versus acceptable-risk status for both lipid measures was associated significantly with increased prevalence of obesity and adverse levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglycerides in adulthood, only childhood non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol high-risk status was associated with increased prevalence of low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, hyperinsulinemia, and hyperglycemia (marginal). CONCLUSIONS: Adverse levels of non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol versus low-density lipoprotein cholesterol in childhood not only equally persist over time and better predict adult dyslipidemia but also are related to nonlipid cardiovascular risk factors in adulthood.
Srinivasan et al. (Sat,) studied this question.