Methodological Solutions for Selecting Priority for Decarbonization of an Operating Vessel

One of the most critical challenges in maritime transport decarbonization, as part of the EU greenhouse gas (GHG) neutrality strategy, is the reduction in GHG and harmful emissions from the energy systems of existing vessels. Furthermore, the potential for implementing decarbonization technologies in operating vessels remains significantly more limited compared to newly constructed ships. Selecting appropriate decarbonization measures requires a comprehensive evaluation of technological feasibility, economic viability, and environmental performance, in accordance with the regulatory frameworks established by the IMO and the EU. A major limitation in such decision-making processes is ensuring the representativeness and reliability of expert judgments. In order to improve the reliability of results by expanding and structuring the information base, this study proposes and implements a method based on the integration of SWOT analysis with multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods. The objective of this study was to examine the methodological aspects of testing the integrated application of comprehensive analysis and ranking methods for decarbonization technologies as applied to a prototype oil tanker. Based on the SWOT analysis method, technological solutions that are available for practical application were identified for the medium-term decarbonization period considered in the study, up to 2030–2035. Subsequent rating based on several applied multi-criteria (MCDM) analysis methods (TOPSIS, COPRAS, SAW) allowed us to examine the range, stability and sensitivity of the obtained solutions in relation to the methods themselves and scenarios with variations in the weighting factors of the evaluation criteria. The complete match of the ratings obtained using the TOPSIS and COPRAS methods confirms the stability of the multi-criteria decision-making process (priority-compromise order): CCS, kite, air lubrication, Flettner rotor. The performed sensitivity analysis showed that the technology rankings remain relatively stable when the weighting factor for the CO2 reduction criterion varies within a range of approximately ±10%, while larger deviations result in an increasing difference between all three MCDM methods. For the TOPSIS method, the change limits for the critical values of the threshold indicators were ±20%, the COPRAS method showed intermediate results, and changing the weighting coefficients within a ±20% range did not alter the selection of the best technology. The results obtained allow for a positive assessment of the effectiveness of the proposed integrated methodology when applied as an alternative in the initial stage of ranking decarbonization methods for in-service ships.