Predicting the Popularity of Online Serials with Autoregressive Models

Recent years have witnessed the rapid prevalence of online serials, which play an important role in our daily entertainment. A critical demand along this line is to predict the popularity of online serials, which can enable a wide range of applications, such as online advertising, and serial recommendation. However, compared with traditional online media such as user-generated content (UGC), online serials have unique characteristics of sequence dependence, release date dependence as well as unsynchronized update regularity. Therefore, the popularity prediction for online serials is a nontrivial task and still under-addressed. To this end, in this paper we present a comprehensive study for predicting the popularity of online serials with autoregressive models. Specifically, we first introduce a straightforward yet effective Naive Autoregressive (NAR) model based on the correlations of serial episodes. Furthermore, we develop a sophisticated model, namely Transfer Autoregressive (TAR) model, to capture the dynamic behaviors of audiences, which can achieve better prediction performance than the NAR model. Indeed, the two models can reveal the popularity generation from different perspectives. In addition, as a derivative of the TAR model, we also design a novel metric, namely favor, for evaluating the quality of online serials. Finally, extensive experiments on two real-world data sets clearly show that both models are effective and outperform baselines in terms of the popularity prediction for online serials. And the new metric performs better than other metrics for quality estimation.