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The article presents an analysis of the potential consequences for Cracow of failure of dams located in the Vistula catchment area upstream of the city. They have been compared with the effects of a flood with a probability of 0.2%. The estimation of losses and damages was made on the basis of the results of model studies and flood hazard and flood risk assessments carried out as part of the analyses of the second planning cycle of the implementation of the Floods Directive in Poland. The MIKE 11 model was used to simulate flows in riverbeds and its Dambreak module is used to simulate dam failure. An adjustment of the loss index for Cracow’s residential areas was proposed. Some elements of the described methodology can be used to estimate flood losses in large cities. They can also be applied to cities that are not at risk of dam disasters.
Jerzy Grela (Wed,) studied this question.