Is there a natural rate of crime in India?

This paper examines the natural rate of crime hypothesis in the Indian context. We use annual time series data on aggregate as well as specific crime categories for the period 1953–2012. Various types of unit root tests – conventional as well as unit root test with endogenously determined structural breaks – are used to identify whether the respective crime rates are stationary. The empirical findings suggest that majority of the crime series are stationary with structural breaks implying the existence of a natural rate of crime in India in the long run. Specifically, total crimes along with individual crime types such as burglary, counterfeiting, criminal breach of trust, dacoity and theft are stationary with two structural breaks, whereas kidnapping & abduction and cheating are stationary with one break. Our findings are consistent with the literature which argues that crimes with pecuniary motives are more likely to have natural rates.