Baseline serum 25‐hydroxyvitamin D concentrations in the Tromsø Study 1994–95 and risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus during 11 years of follow‐up

AIMS: We wanted to test the hypothesis that low serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentrations are associated with increased risk of developing Type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) in a population-based cohort during 11 years of follow-up. METHODS: The analyses included 4157 non-smokers and 1962 smokers from the Tromsø Study 1994-95 without diabetes at baseline. Subsequent Type 2 DM was defined using a hospital journal-based end-point registry, completed through the year 2005. Participants were allocated into quartiles of serum 25(OH)D within each month to account for seasonal variation, and serum 25(OH)D values both as a continuous variable and in quartiles were used in Cox regression models. The analyses were stratified by smoking. Adjustments were made for age, sex, body mass index (BMI), physical activity and, in non-smokers, former smoking. RESULTS: Type 2 DM was registered in 183 non-smoking and 64 smoking participants. Using the fourth (highest) quartile of serum 25(OH)D as the reference, non-smoking participants in the third, second and first quartiles had age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of incident Type 2 DM of 1.00 (0.62-1.61), 1.50 (0.97-2.31) and 1.89 (1.25-2.88), respectively, whereas the corresponding values for smokers were 1.79 (0.77-4.19), 2.33 (1.02-5.35) and 2.68 (1.18-6.08). Adjustment for BMI attenuated the hazard ratios, and they were no longer significant. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline serum 25(OH)D was inversely associated with subsequent Type 2 DM in a population-based 11 year follow-up study, but not after adjustment for BMI. Randomized trials are needed to define the possible role of serum 25(OH)D status, and thereby the role of supplementation, in the prevention of Type 2 DM.