An information-theoretic approach to traffic matrix estimation

Traffic matrices are required inputs for many IP network management tasks: for instance, capacity planning, traffic engineering and network reliability analysis. However, it is difficult to measure these matrices directly, and so there has been recent interest in inferring traffic matrices from link measurements and other more easily measured data. Typically, this inference problem is ill-posed, as it involves significantly more unknowns than data. Experience in many scientific and engineering fields has shown that it is essential to approach such ill-posed problems via "regularization". This paper presents a new approach to traffic matrix estimation using a regularization based on "entropy penalization". Our solution chooses the traffic matrix consistent with the measured data that is information-theoretically closest to a model in which source/destination pairs are stochastically independent. We use fast algorithms based on modern convex optimization theory to solve for our traffic matrices. We evaluate the algorithm with real backbone traffic and routing data, and demonstrate that it is fast, accurate, robust, and flexible.