Big Data Driven Mobile Traffic Understanding and Forecasting: A Time Series Approach

Understanding and forecasting mobile traffic of large scale cellular networks is extremely valuable for service providers to control and manage the explosive mobile data, such as network planning, load balancing, and data pricing mechanisms. This paper targets at extracting and modeling traffic patterns of 9,000 cellular towers deployed in a metropolitan city. To achieve this goal, we design, implement, and evaluate a time series analysis approach that is able to decompose large scale mobile traffic into regularity and randomness components. Then, we use time series prediction to forecast the traffic patterns based on the regularity components. Our study verifies the effectiveness of our utilized time series decomposition method, and shows the geographical distribution of the regularity and randomness component. Moreover, we reveal that high predictability of the regularity component can be achieved, and demonstrate that the prediction of randomness component of mobile traffic data is impossible.