Do severity rating scales (CR-POSSUM, APACHE III, SAPS II) accurately predict mortality in patients with acute colonic ileus caused by colonic cancer?
APACHE III and SAPS II scales accurately predict mortality in patients with acute colonic ileus, and accuracy improves when stratifying by constant potential levels.
Objective: to upgrade the quality of predicting an outcome in patients with acute colonic ileus (ACI) in relation to the level of a constant potential. Material and methods. Four hundred and seventy-one case histories of patients operated on for ACI caused by colonic cancer were retrospectively analyzed. Results. An analysis of the capacity of scales to accurately predict a fatal outcome in the general population showed that the CR-POSSUM scale significantly underrated the risk for a fatal outcome (O/R ratio = 1.684 (1.515—1.871); however, the APACHE III and SAPS II scales demonstrated an adequate accuracy (O/R ratio = 1.112 (1.088—1.136) and 1.069 (1.054—1.085), respectively). When dividing subgroups according to the value of constant potential, the greatest agreement was achieved predominantly in Subgroup 1, by using the CR-POSSUM and APACHE III scales (the area under the characteristic curve was 0.913 and 0.93, respectively). It should be pointed out that all the scales had a good calibration after additional identification of subgroups, unlike in the general population of patients (p>0.05). The SAPS II scale also demonstrated a good calibration, but a low discriminating power particularly in groups with average and low negative values of a constant potential. Key words: severity rating scales, acute colonic ileus, constant potential.
Стаканов et al. (Wed,) studied this question.