Draft Lottery Numbers and Student Opposition to War

In this panel study of draft eligible male undergraduates, the impact of the first draft lottery upon student political attitudes is examined. It was predicted that students who drew low numbers would have an increased opposition to war, the Vietnam war in particular. Evidence for this hypothesis, however, was found to be weak. Draft eligible students who drew low numbers did show an increase in the number favoring an immediate withdrawal from Vietnam more often than those who drew high numbers, but the change was not statistically significant. Lottery number had no impact upon the general trend toward increased pacifism in the sample. The salience and power of the draft lottery as a single causal variable is called into question for studies of male college students. MICHAEL TOTH IN AN ISSUE of The American Sociologist (1971:39) expressed hope that social scientists were not merely responsive to the draft lottery but anticipated it with sound research design. He asked, among other things, what effects, if any, the draft lottery would have upon attitudes toward pacifism. Although it is true that one's draft status depended to some extent upon the policy of one's particular draft board prior to the introduction of the lottery system, draft uncertainty was widespread among male students with I-A or II-S classifications. Females, veterans, older students, and those with draft classifications other than I-A and II-S were spared this source of disquietude. When guidelines for a national, rather than local, quota were established and when it was recommended that those with numbers above 195 not be called, uncertainty for the draft eligible was minimized. Given the broad lack of enthusiasm for the Vietnam War existing among students during this period, one would expect