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OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to develop a method to identify persons at high risk for acquiring new sexually transmitted infections. METHODS: Computerized medical records from sexually transmitted disease clinics in Dade County, Florida, were used to conduct a retrospective cohort study. For all patients who visited in 1987, risk factors were identified for returning to the clinics within a year with a new sexually transmitted infection. Predictor variables were derived from the index visit and any visits in the year prior to the index visit. Logistic regression was used to develop a model that was applied to all patients who attended in 1989. RESULTS: Of 24,439 patients attending in 1987, 18.5% returned within a year with a new infection. Return rates were highest for 15- to 19-year-old Black males (31.8%). The highest odds ratios for returning were a diagnosis or treatment for an infection in the previous year and a diagnosis or treatment for infection at the index visit. The patients predicted to be at highest risk had a 39% return rate. There were as many new infections among the 2893 patients at highest risk as there were among the 13,326 patients at lowest risk. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a model that identifies persons at very high risk for sexually transmitted infection. These persons should be targeted for intensive intervention to reduce their risk.
Richert et al. (Thu,) studied this question.