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Global steel production has undergone massive growth since WWII. In recent decades, however, affluent regions such as the US and the EU-28 have been experiencing a saturation of the steel market. Stagnant steel production volumes and increased post-consumer scrap volumes are the consequence. The increasing shares of post-consumer scrap provide the opportunity to increase the scrap rate (share of utilized scrap) in crude steel production. However, steel recycling has a major limiting factor: the content of specific tramp elements. In the present study, a dynamic material flow model for steel is used to compare available scrap with crude steel demand on a quantitative and qualitative level (tramp element content of Cu, Ni, Mo, Cr and Sn). The results show that post-consumer scrap increases from 80 Mt/yr (65% of all scrap available) in 2020 to more than 100 Mt/yr (75% of all scrap available) in 2050. Based on the model, the development of the yearly surplus of low purity scrap (for which there is a higher supply than demand) was assessed via material pinch analysis. The low purity scrap surplus rises further, from today's 20 Mt/yr (2020) to 43 Mt/yr in 2050. Assuming that the current handling of scrap continues, the maximal scrap rate is shown to lie at around 55%, while the potential scrap rate (without quality constraints) could reach 75%. The dilution of low purity scrap with high purity resources would allow the utilization of all scrap until 2040 if the current collection scheme remains in place.
Dworak et al. (Sun,) studied this question.