Variability of the Outer Wind Profiles of Western North Pacific Typhoons: Classifications and Techniques for Analysis and Forecasting

The hazard posed by tropical cyclones (TCs) is often quantified in terms of the minimum central pressure (MCP) or maximum wind speed. While significant, these qualities must be balanced against considerations for the strength and spatial extent of the outer-core circulation, which also significantly determines the total peril posed by these storms. To this end, the results of recent studies on the time evolution of the outer wind structure of western North Pacific typhoons are presented. The results include a technique for diagnosing the azimuthally averaged wind profile from a combination of regional synoptic data and estimates of MCP. Aircraft reconnaissance data, augmented with available synoptic and scatterometer data, are used to determine the radial extent of 15 (R15), 25 (R25), and 33 (R33) m s 1 winds for 50 typhoons. Thirty-five of these typhoons were designated as the developmental dataset and 15 were reserved for use as independent data.