The spectre of an Iranian threat to shut the Strait of Hormuz, thereby choking off a hefty proportion of global energy and other critical-commodity supplies, has hung over the Gulf and the world economy for decades. Inexplicably, the United States did not take the prospect seriously in undertaking its war with Israel against Iran, which precipitated its actual closure. The reality has proved even more confounding for policymakers and military planners, and even more disruptive to global economic activity, than most theories had suggested. Although a continuing US blockade might squeeze the Iranian economy enough to shift Tehran’s calculus, the only sure way out of the tense impasse seems to be negotiation. Unless the outcome is a restoration of the strait’s status as a safe and reliable international waterway, Tehran’s hand will likely be strengthened further.
Nick Childs (Mon,) studied this question.