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Urban flood risk management must move beyond stationary design assumptions and isolated mitigation strategies to address the combined effects of climate change and land use/land cover change (LULCC). This study applies an integrated risk management framework to a flood-prone urban catchment, explicitly incorporating non-stationary rainfall projections and socio-economic scenarios derived from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Two development pathways were evaluated: a green scenario integrating Nature-based Solutions (NbS), and a gray scenario relying primarily on structural detention basins under intensified urbanization. Results show that for a 100-year event, economic losses rise from R 15. 5 million in the current scenario to R 53. 7 million in 2100. LULCC has an even greater impact: the gray scenario more than triple losses, while the green scenario reduces them for frequent events. Findings demonstrate that hydraulic mitigation alone is insufficient for long-term resilience and that integrated gray – green strategies with exposure management are necessary to avoid maladaptation.
Navarro et al. (Sun,) studied this question.