Active inference as a model of collision avoidance behavior in human drivers

Collision avoidance – involving a rapid threat detection and quick execution of the appropriate evasive maneuver – is a critical aspect of driving. However, existing models of human collision avoidance behavior are fragmented, focusing on specific scenarios or only describing certain aspects of the avoidance behavior, such as response times. This paper addresses these gaps by proposing a computational cognitive model of human collision avoidance behavior based on active inference. Active inference provides a unified approach to modeling human behavior: the minimization of free energy. Building on prior active inference work, our model incorporates established cognitive mechanisms such as evidence accumulation to simulate human responses in three distinct collision avoidance scenarios: front-to-rear lead vehicle braking, lateral incursion by an oncoming vehicle, and another vehicle failing to yield at an intersection. We demonstrate that our model explains a wide range of empirical findings on human collision avoidance behavior. Specifically, the model closely reproduces both aggregate results from meta-analyses previously reported in the literature and detailed, scenario-specific effects observed in two recent driving simulator studies, including response timing, maneuver selection, and execution. Our results highlight the potential of active inference as a generalizable framework for understanding and modeling human behavior in complex real-life driving tasks. This work presents a computational model of human driver collision avoidance based on active inference, simulating response selection, timing, and execution across multiple driving scenarios and reproducing key patterns observed in empirical human data.