Modeling Active Longevity Under Economic Sanctions

The purpose of the study is to develop a methodological framework for modeling active longevity under conditions of demographic aging and economic sanctions. The relevance of the research is determined by accelerating population aging processes, the need to achieve the strategic life expectancy targets of the Russian Federation, and the influence of external economic constraints on healthcare and social welfare systems. The study employs comparative analysis, demographic analysis, systems approach, index modeling, and econometric modeling methods. A system of quantitative indicators is proposed, including the Active Longevity Index, Active Aging Coefficient, Demographic Dependency Ratio, Target Longevity Achievement Model, and an Integrated Active Longevity Model. International and Russian experiences in implementing active longevity policies are examined. The findings indicate that population aging is a multidimensional phenomenon requiring comprehensive public policy responses. Current demographic trends are shown to complicate the achievement of strategic life expectancy targets without additional policy interventions. The proposed models provide a quantitative framework for evaluating the effectiveness of active longevity programs and may be applied in decision-making processes at both regional and national levels.