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This study investigates the response of the Mode Waters in the North Pacific to global warming based on a set of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) models. Solutions between a present‐day climate and a future, warmer climate are compared. Under the warmer climate scenario, the Mode Waters are produced on lighter isopycnal surfaces and are significantly weakened in terms of their formation and evolution. These changes are due to a more stratified upper ocean and thus a shoaling of the winter mixing depth resulting mainly from a reduction of the ocean‐to‐atmosphere heat loss over the subtropical region. The basin‐wide wind stress may adjust the Mode Waters indirectly through its impact on the surface heat flux and subduction process.
Luo et al. (Tue,) studied this question.