What question did this study set out to answer?

This research aims to create and validate a Multidimensional Resilience Index to evaluate societal resilience in MENA countries.

July 6, 2026Open Access

Measuring latent state and societal resilience: development and validation of a multidimensional index for the Middle East and North Africa

Key Points

This research aims to create and validate a Multidimensional Resilience Index to evaluate societal resilience in MENA countries.
Developed a Multidimensional Resilience Index covering 18 MENA countries from 2007 to 2022.
Utilized 77 indicators from international sources, normalized on a 0–1 scale, and aggregated using equal weights.
Conducted validation analyses to assess correlations with established criteria and employed panel regressions to identify key factors influencing resilience.
Pre-2011 MRI levels were significantly lower in countries that experienced uprisings (M = 40.2 vs. M = 54.1, p = 0.002).
Rule of law, life expectancy, and female labor force participation were identified as robust correlates of overall resilience (β values +0.785, +0.261, +0.370, respectively).
Correlations between the additive and network-style MRI specifications were significant (r = 0.524), indicating complementary aspects of resilience.

Abstract

Abstract This paper develops and validates a Multidimensional Resilience Index (MRI) designed to measure latent state and societal capacity across eighteen MENA countries between 2007 and 2022. Resilience is conceptualized as a multidimensional, forward-looking capacity rather than an outcome or residual condition, and is operationalized through seven analytically distinct dimensions: economic, social, political, institutional, infrastructure, environmental, and security resilience. The index draws on 77 indicators from authoritative international data sources (World Bank WDI, V-Dem v13, Fragile States Index) with country–year coverage exceeding 50 observations, normalized to a common 0–1 scale and aggregated using equal weights within and across dimensions. A network-style minimum-aggregator MRI is reported alongside the additive baseline to capture bottleneck dynamics in which a single dimensional collapse renders the system as a whole vulnerable; the two specifications correlate at r = 0.524, indicating that they capture complementary aspects of resilience. Validation analyses show strong convergent validity with established external criteria — Institutional resilience with V-Dem rule of law (r = + 0.912), Security resilience with the Fragile States Index total ( r = − 0.976), Social resilience with life expectancy (r = + 0.829) — and discriminant validity through differential prediction across dimensions. Pre-2011 MRI levels are significantly lower in countries that subsequently experienced uprisings (M = 40.2 vs. M = 54.1, t = − 3.73, p = 0.002), though post-shock changes do not relate monotonically to pre-shock levels: Libya, with one of the lowest pre-shock MRI values, shows the largest aggregate gain in the short post-uprising window. Empirical patterns reveal pronounced heterogeneity across dimensions, including the systematic decoupling of political and institutional capacity in Gulf monarchies, which combine high material and administrative resilience with low political resilience. Panel regressions with country and year fixed effects identify rule of law (β = +0.785), life expectancy (β = +0.261), and female labor force participation (β = +0.370) as the most robust correlates of overall resilience under both clustered and wild bootstrap inference. The study contributes a region-sensitive measurement framework, a transparent and reproducible construction protocol, and a diagnostic distinction between average-capacity and bottleneck specifications relevant for the analysis of state capacity in heterogeneous contexts.

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