ABSTRACT This article examines the evolution of the European Troika's narratives on Iran's nuclear program, from the aftermath of the JCPOA to the 2026 “Ramadan War.” Drawing on an analysis of 55 official statements by E3 leaders and diplomats, the study traces how the E3 shifted between a posture of normative hedging and one of bandwagoning. It identifies four critical phases: the hedging period following the US withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018; the erosion of diplomacy after the failure of INSTEX and the assassinations of General Qasem Soleimani and Professor Mohsen Fakhrizadeh; the post‐2023 convergence, marked by the invocation of the snap‐back mechanism and E3 support for US–Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear infrastructure in 2025; and finally, the post‐2026 war period, in which the E3 reassesses the “Ramadan War” as unnecessary and reasserts elements of strategic autonomy. The article argues that the 2025 “12‐Day War” served as a narrative turning point, collapsing the E3's strategic ambiguity and revealing a deeper structural alignment with US hard power. However, the 2026 “Ramadan War,” which demonstrated the ineffectiveness of military campaigns for nonproliferation, led the E3 to readjust its policy by stepping back and reducing its alignment with Washington's containment strategy.
Mohammad Eslami (Thu,) studied this question.