Hover Performance and Uncertainty Quantification of a Light-Twin Helicopter Rotor

This study presents an extended Blade Element Momentum Theory (BEMT) framework for predicting the hover performance of an EC135-class light-twin helicopter rotor while quantifying the impact of sectional aerodynamic uncertainty on global rotor metrics. Because the proprietary EC135 airfoils are not publicly available, a reproducible surrogate blade based on the ONERA OA213 and OA209 airfoils is adopted. The airfoil substitution is explicitly treated as an epistemic modelling assumption, and its effect on rotor-level hover predictions is assessed through a dedicated geometric comparison and bounded sensitivity analysis. The classical BEMT formulation is enhanced with Prandtl tip-loss corrections, Mach-dependent sectional aerodynamics, and an iterative non-uniform inflow model. Aerodynamic coefficients are obtained from Gaussian Process (GP) surrogate models trained on XFOIL-generated databases and calibrated using cross-validation techniques. The calibrated GP models are coupled with the rotor solver and their predictive uncertainty is propagated through Monte Carlo simulations. For the nominal hover trim condition, the rotor was trimmed to CT=0.00607, while the model predicted a power coefficient of 0.00041 and a figure of merit of 0.819. The propagated GP/XFOIL-conditioned uncertainty yields a 95% confidence interval of 0.8074–0.8285 for the figure of merit, indicating limited sensitivity of rotor performance to sectional aerodynamic uncertainty. The influence of compressibility and tip-loss effects is also quantified. In a separate Caradonna–Tung solver-verification case, the thrust-coefficient error is reduced from 32.57% to 7.78% when finite-aspect-ratio corrections are included. The proposed framework provides a fast, reproducible, and uncertainty-aware approach for helicopter rotor hover analysis suitable for preliminary design and performance assessment.