How Do Fintechs Impact Banks’ Profitability?—An Empirical Study Based on Banks in China

The rapid development of Fintechs has brought opportunities and challenges to the profitability of banks. In this paper, we theoretically expound how Fintechs impact on banks’ profitability, then we establish the Error Correction Model (ECM) and combine this with the Granger causal relation test based on the data of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) in 2011–2020. The research results show the following findings: (1) banks’ profitability (ROE) has a cooperative relationship with the development of Fintechs (FTI), banks’ assets (TA), the profitability of interest-bearing assets (NIM), credit risks (NPL) and cost control (CTI). (2) Fintechs have a “U”-shaped impact on the banks’ profitability. In the initial stages, Fintechs impact the business of banks, which reduces the profitability of banks; the advantages of Fintechs gradually increase in the middle and later stages, and the profitability gradually increases. (3) The assets of banks (TA) and the profitability of interest-bearing assets (NIM) change in the same direction as banks’ profitability (ROE), while credit risks (NPL) and cost control (CTI) change in the opposite direction from ROE. (4) The level of bank profitability and the development of Fintechs are Granger causes of each other, the size of the bank’s assets is the Grange reason for the increase in profitability and the increase in profitability is the Granger cause for the improvement of NIM and the decline in NPL.