The Low-Carbon Development Strategy of Russia Until 2050 and the Role of Forests in Its Implementation

This article examines the role of managed ecosystems, and particularly forests, in achieving carbon neutrality in Russia. The range of estimates of Russia’s forests’ net carbon balance in different studies varies by up to 7 times. The. A comparison of Russia’s National GHG inventory data for 2023 and 2024 (with the latter showing 37% higher forest sequestration) is presented and explained. The possible changes in the Long-Term Low-Emission Development Strategy of Russia (LT LEDS) carbon neutrality scenario due to new land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) data in National GHG Inventory Document (NID) 2024 are discussed. It is demonstrated that the refined net carbon balance should not impact the mitigation ambition in the Russian forestry sector. An assessment of changes in the drafts of the Operational plan of the LT LEDS is presented and it is concluded that its structure and content have significantly improved; however, a delay in operationalization nullifies efforts. The article highlights the problem of GHG emissions increases in forest fires and compares the gap between official “ground-based” and Remote Sensing approaches in calculations of such emissions. Considering the intention to increase net absorption by implementing forest carbon projects, the latest changes in the regulations of such projects are discussed. The limitations of reforestation carbon projects in Russia are provided. Proposals are presented for the development of the national forest policy towards increasing the net forest carbon absorption, including considering the projected decrease in annual net absorption by Russian forests by 2050. The role of government and private investment in improving the forest management of structural measures to adapt forestry to modern climate change and the place of forest climate projects need to be clearly defined in the LT LEDS.