Coronary Calcium Does Not Accurately Predict Near-Term Future Coronary Events in High-Risk Adults

BACKGROUND: Prognostic risk models have had limited success in predicting coronary events in subjects with multiple risk factors. We and others have proposed an alternative approach using radiographically detectable coronary calcium. We evaluated and compared the predictive value of these 2 approaches for determining coronary event risk in asymptomatic adults with multiple coronary risk factors. In addition, we assessed the predictive value of a risk model that included calcium score and cardiac risk-factor data. METHODS AND RESULTS: We recruited 1196 asymptomatic high-coronary-risk subjects who then underwent risk-factor assessment and cardiac electron-beam CT (EBCT) scanning and were followed up for 41 months with a 99% success rate. We applied the Framingham model and our data-derived risk model to determine the 3-year likelihood of a coronary event. The mean age of our cohort was 66 years, and mean 3-year Framingham risk was 3.3+/-3.6%. Sixty-eight percent (818 subjects) had detectable coronary calcium. There were 17 coronary deaths (1.4%) and 29 nonfatal infarctions (2. 4%). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve areas calculated from the Framingham model, our data-derived risk model, and the calcium score were 0.69+/-0.05, 0.68+/-0.05, and 0.64+/-0.05, respectively (P=NS). When calcium score was included as a variable in the data-derived model, the ROC area did not change significantly (0.68+/-0.05 to 0.71+/-0.04; P=NS). CONCLUSIONS: Neither risk-factor assessment nor EBCT calcium is an accurate event predictor in high-risk asymptomatic adults. EBCT calcium score does not add significant incremental information to risk factors, and its use in clinical screening is not justified at this time.