Strong progenitor age bias in supernova cosmology – II. Alignment with DESI BAO and signs of a non-accelerating universe

ABSTRACT Supernova (SN) cosmology is based on the key assumption that the luminosity standardization process of Type Ia SNe remains invariant with progenitor age. However, direct and extensive age measurements of SN host galaxies reveal a significant (5. 5) correlation between standardized SN magnitude and progenitor age, which is expected to introduce a serious systematic bias with redshift in SN cosmology. This systematic bias is largely uncorrected by the commonly used mass-step correction, as progenitor age and host galaxy mass evolve very differently with redshift. After correcting for this age bias as a function of redshift, the SN data set aligns more closely with the w₀wₐ cold dark matter (CDM) model recently suggested by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) project from a combined analysis using only BAO and cosmic microwave background (CMB) data. This result is further supported by an evolution-free test that uses only SNe from young, coeval host galaxies across the full redshift range. When the three cosmological probes (SNe, BAO, and CMB) are combined, we find a significantly stronger (9) tension with the CDM model than that reported in the DESI papers, suggesting a time-varying dark energy equation of state in a currently non-accelerating universe.