Trade Effects of EU Sanctions Against Russia: Evidence From the Visegrad Group

ABSTRACT This article examines the impact of the European Union's post‐March 2014 and post‐February 2022 sanctions episodes against Russia on trade between Russia and the Visegrad countries (Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) over 2013–2024. Changes are analysed at both the aggregate level and—based on an original identification of EU sanction coverage—across selected sanctioned product chapters and non‐sanctioned reference groups. The empirical framework combines descriptive statistics on the distribution of the selected product groups with two complementary econometric approaches: a gravity‐based Poisson pseudo‐maximum likelihood model (PPML) with fixed effects, estimated in a difference‐in‐differences design relative to control markets, and a PPML interrupted time‐series model used as a robustness check to identify structural breaks and post‐intervention trends. Empirically, the effects of EU sanctions on Visegrad exports to Russia were strongly negative already under the post‐March 2014 sanctions regime, particularly for highly sanctioned manufactured product groups such as machinery and electrical equipment, and intensified further following the substantial expansion of sanctions after February 2022. Import effects were initially weaker but intensified markedly from 2022 onward, most notably for energy sources. The findings point to episode‐specific trade responses, pronounced heterogeneity across product groups, and a clear asymmetry between export and import adjustments.