Objective Major-Specific Fit Forecasts Regarding Interests, Skills, and Expectations Predict Motivation, Choice and Success in a Major

Choosing an educational path is a difficult life decision that can lead to unfavorable outcomes when it goes wrong. However, little research has examined how to support successful study major choice processes. To address this gap, we draw on person-environment fit and (affective) forecasting bias theories, assuming that higher objective major-specific fit forecasts (interests, skills, expectations) predict success (motivation, satisfaction, dropout intention, achievement) beyond subjective forecasts. Additionally relying on expectancy-value theory and cognitive dissonance theory, we assume that higher objective major-specific fit forecasts, when displayed in feedback, predict higher motivation to choose a major and higher likelihood of enrollment beyond subjective forecasts. Finally, we propose that prospective students receiving feedback before enrollment experience more success than those receiving no feedback. We tested these hypotheses in a longitudinal field study. Over three years, more than 4000 prospective students received feedback on their objective major-specific fit forecasts in an online-self-assessment and reported their motivation for the major before and after feedback. Subsequently, over 500 of these prospective students entered their respective major and reported their success. Additionally, we surveyed over 200 students who did not receive feedback. As hypothesized, objective major-specific fit forecasts predicted success beyond subjective forecasts. Higher objective forecasts related to higher motivation to choose the major and higher likelihood of enrollment beyond subjective forecasts. Finally, prospective students who received feedback on their objective forecasts before enrollment experienced more success compared to no feedback. We discuss theoretical implications for study choice and success theories and practical implications for study guidance.