The Resilience of the Economies of Ukraine and the World and the Assessment of Their Vulnerability and Ability to Recover after Crises and Shocks

The study indicates that crises and shocks of various types and scales occurring in all spheres of public life lead to fundamental changes in the global security system, the world economy, to the stagnation of national economies and their decline, which necessitates the intensification of scientific research on various aspects of the problem of ensuring the resilience of national economies. It is determined that the impacts of shocks and the mechanisms of recovery are different in different countries, which vary in their vulnerability, presenting a contrast to resilience. The aim of the presented study is to substantiate a scientific-methodological approach, as well as to assess and analyze the vulnerability and recovery capacity of the economies of Ukraine and the world after crises and shocks based on it. The definitions of the terms «resilience» and «vulnerability» have been clarified. It is defined that a resilient economy has three main properties: absorption, adaptation, and transformation, which should be considered when evaluating it under the influence of crises (shocks), and interpretations of these concepts have been provided. A scientific and methodological approach has been developed to assess the vulnerability and recovery capacity of the economies of both Ukraine and the world after crises and shocks, which takes into account the main properties of resilience (absorption, adaptation, and transformation) and is based on the use of matrix instruments. Using this approach, an assessment of vulnerability and recovery capacity has been carried out for the economies of 48 countries (including Ukraine) after crises and shocks in both the short and long term, and the countries have been clustered into groups with high, medium, and low economic resilience over various time horizons. The evolution of countries in the quadrants of the matrix for assessing economic resilience in countering crises (shocks) of various kinds over the long-term periods of 1996–2007 and 2010–2023 is examined.