Power, proximity and cooperation: Revisiting Turkey’s role in South Caucasus regionalism

This article analyzes Turkey’s evolving role in formulating regionalism in the South Caucasus with a focus on its diplomatic and economic strategies following the Second Karabakh War. It examines Turkey’s transition from reactive policies to proactive efforts aimed at fostering cooperation among Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Armenia through multilateral platforms. Rooted in geographical proximity, cultural ties, and shared security concerns, Turkey’s initiatives underscore inclusivity and cooperation despite historical tensions with Armenia. This analysis theoretically identifies four key challenges to regionalism: 1) mutual distrust, 2) perceptions of hostility, 3) conflict risks, and 4) limited institutional frameworks. By balancing realist and liberal perspectives, the article suggests that Turkey’s pragmatic approach incorporates frameworks addressing both security and collaboration as well as regional influence. Furthermore, the article highlights how Turkey’s economic investments, energy projects, and cultural diplomacy serve as complementary tools to consolidate its regional strategy. It also explores whether Turkey’s regionalism can succeed without Armenia’s active participation and assesses the impact of conflicts on regional integration. Turkey's engagement in infrastructure projects such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars Railway and the Southern Gas Corridor exemplifies its commitment to fostering connectivity and economic interdependence in the region. These initiatives not only enhance Turkey’s strategic presence but also promote economic resilience and cooperation among South Caucasus states. Additionally, the article examines Turkey’s diplomatic efforts, including trilateral platforms and mediation initiatives, as mechanisms for reducing tensions and promoting dialog. It argues that Turkey’s regional vision seeks to reimagine the South Caucasus as a collaborative space, contingent on overcoming entrenched rivalries, building trust, and establishing sustainable regional platforms. Success in this endeavor, however, remains dependent on the willingness of regional actors to embrace dialog and prioritize economic cooperation over historical grievances.