The study begins with North Korea’s 2024 “filth balloon” provocation and aims to analyze the underlying causes behind the changing patterns of North Korea’s military provocations, forecast future trends, and explore strategic response options for South Korea. To this end, the study first constructs an analytical framework grounded in theoretical discussions on the concept of military provocation and changes in the strategic environment. It then conducts a chronological analysis of the strategic evolution of North Korean provocations under the regimes of Kim Il-sung, Kim Jong-il, and Kim Jong-un. The findings reveal that North Korea has consistently used military provocations as a tool to achieve its political objectives, and that the form of these provocations has gradually shifted to more indirect and asymmetric methods in response to changes in the strategic environment. Under Kim Jong-un, provocations have become notably low-intensity and less visible, making it more difficult for South Korea to mount a clear military response. In the future, North Korea is more likely to rely on indirect and psychological means of provocation rather than high-intensity conventional attacks. Accordingly, South Korea must recognize the limitations in completely deterring such actions and develop a more flexible and integrated strategy in response.
Jaekyu Jang (Thu,) studied this question.
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