Retrospective-Causal Analysis of Open-Pit Operation as a Basis for Developing an Adaptive Management Model for a Regional Mining Cluster

Purpose. Conducting a comprehensive analysis of the dynamics of production indicators of mining enterprises in Kryvbas to identify patterns of their variability, determine the degree of stability of actual mining operations compared to design parameters, and substantiate practical approaches to the formation of adaptive management strategies in conditions of market uncertainty. Method. A retrospective analysis of the activities of mining enterprises was used, with a causal analysis of the conditions of their functioning and an econometric analysis of the established indicators; methods of statistical data processing, a systematic approach and comparative analysis were used to quantitatively assess the stability and variability of production indicators of mining enterprises in Kryvbas, identify patterns in their dynamics and substantiate the directions for forming adaptive management strategies. Results. The dynamics of production indicators of deep iron ore pits of Kryvyi Rih were analyzed. The study found that the average relative deviation of the actual productivity of mining enterprises reaches 15–37%, and the overburden ratio – up to 340%, which indicates high production variability. Only some open-pits, in particular PrJSC “InGZK” (11 years of stable operation) and pit No. 2 of PJSC “ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih” (12 years), demonstrate moderate stability in meeting design indicators. For the remaining enterprises, the number of years with an acceptable deviation of productivity does not exceed 3–8 over a period of more than 40 years. It is shown that enterprises with an integrated production cycle have a higher adaptive potential due to reduced dependence on external factors. At the same time, the open market, despite the expansion of product sales opportunities, creates additional risks: price fluctuations, logistical failures, geopolitical instability. It is proven that the stability or instability of a mining system is formed not only under the influence of external factors, but largely depends on the interaction of its internal elements, which is a prerequisite for the manifestation of emergent properties. This confirms the need to apply a comprehensive approach to assessing the state and forecasting the work of enterprises, which takes into account not only the indicators of individual open-pits, but also the features of their emergent relationship within the overall production system when developing adaptive management models. Scientific novelty The study provides a quantitative justification of the level of production stability of deep iron ore mines based on retrospective and econometric analysis, as well as identification of emergent properties of the mining system. Practical significance lies in the possibility of using the proposed approach to assess production stability and predict the behavior of mining enterprises in a dynamic market environment, and the derived econometric indicators enable the quantitative substantiation of adaptive strategies for managing mining operations, taking into account the system’s internal reserves and external economic risks.