Marriage–Divorce Dynamics in Azerbaijan, 2014 – 2023: A Time-Series Study

Abstract Background.: Crude marriage rates (CMR) in Azerbaijan have declined steadily during the last decade, while divorces have risen — an inversion with profound demographic and economic consequences. Objectives.: We quantify these trends with monthly micro-data, test for structural breaks around the COVID-19 pandemic, and estimate the macro-economic determinants of divorce. Methods.: Monthly civil-registry micro-files (2014–2023) from the State Statistical Committee (SSC) were aggregated to annual series. Seasonal–trend decomposition, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modelling, and Chow tests were applied. Multivariate autoregressive distributed-lag (ARDL) models linked divorce to unemployment and inflation; sensitivity checks included wild-bootstrap confidence intervals and heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors. Results.: Marriage rates fell at –0.34 (95 % CI –0.47, –0.22) per 1 000 pop/year, while divorce rates rose at +0.08 (+0.04, +0.11). A break in 2020 (τ = –4.27, p = .01) confirmed pandemic disruption. Children born to women in unregistered unions declined 38.7 %. Inflation and unemployment jointly explained 61 % of divorce variation (R² adj = .61). Out-of-sample forecasts predict a modest uptick in marriages by 2026 if unemployment remains below 5 %. Conclusions.: Azerbaijan’s nuptiality reversal is driven by economic stress and was exacerbated by pandemic restrictions. Digitised marriage-registration services and counter-cyclical labour measures may arrest adverse demographic momentum. Contribution.: This is the first decade-long, high-resolution time-series analysis of marriage and divorce in Azerbaijan using computational econometrics.