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This is a Quantitative Study study.

September 20, 2025Open Access

The Economic Consequences of Mr Trump.

Key Points

The analysis predicts significant economic consequences arising from Trump's heavy tariffs implemented during his presidency, affecting both domestic and global markets.
Historical parallels with the 1930s suggest that a trade war, especially with nations like China and the EU, could destabilize economic recovery efforts.
Trump's attempts to alter the Federal Reserve's monetary policy could lead to currency wars, echoing strategies from the 1930s that had profound economic effects.
The exploration of fiscal policy impacts indicates potential ramifications for the US economy in the context of increasing trade tensions.

Abstract

Following the introduction of heavy tariffs by President Donald Trump in his second term in the White House, some of them punitive, and almost all of them ruled illegal by the US Court of International Trade and the Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit 1, with a further appeal to the Republican-majority Supreme Court pending, this paper will examine the likely consequences of a trade war between the US and some of its major trading partners, such as China and the EU, for the American and global economies, with reference to the historical parallel of the 1930s. Trump’s attempts to wrest control of monetary policy from the Federal Reserve may signal that he intends to repeat the competitive devaluations (currency war) of the 1930s as well. It will also examine the effects of his fiscal policy on the US economy.

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