Decoupling Economy Growth and Emissions: Energy Transition Pathways Under the European Agenda for Climate Action

As the European Union’s energy systems are transforming towards achieving climate goals, this article examines the energy balances of EU member states. This analysis covers, among other things, the dynamics of energy dependence and strategies for decoupling economic growth from the level of emissions in the European Union (EU), with particular emphasis on Poland, which is strongly influenced by its historical reliance on coal in the energy balance. Using panel data from 1990 to 2022, the article investigates differences in energy dependence between individual countries, shaped by economic structures and national energy policies. The study results confirm significant heterogeneity between member states and emphasize that the stability and direction of decoupling economic growth from greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are strongly dependent on the composition of the energy mix and vulnerability to external conditions. Based on scenario analysis, potential paths for Poland’s energy transition are assessed. We demonstrate that a high share of renewable energy sources (RES) significantly reduces CO2 emissions, provided it is accompanied by infrastructure modernization and the development of energy storage. Furthermore, integrating nuclear energy as a stabilizing element of the energy mix offers an additional path to deep decarbonization while ensuring supply reliability. Finally, we demonstrate that improving energy efficiency and demand management can effectively increase energy security and reduce emissions, even in a scenario with a stable coal share. The study addresses a research gap by integrating decoupling analysis with scenario-based stochastic modeling for Poland, a country for which few comprehensive transition assessments exist. The results provide practical guidance for developing resilient, low-emission energy policies in Poland and the EU. Results are reported for 2025–2050 (with 2040 as an interim milestone).