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October 1, 2025

GMM estimation and asymptotic properties in periodic GARCH(1, 1) models

ILInes LeschebUniversity Frères Mentouri Constantine 1

Key Points

The study identifies necessary conditions for unique stationary solutions in periodic GARCH models.
GMM allows estimation of parameters, demonstrating consistency and asymptotic normality for the estimator.
GMM can outperform least squares and quasi maximum likelihood in estimating model parameters.
Simulation studies reinforce the theoretical findings, establishing practical applications of the model.

Abstract

Abstract In this paper, we study the class of first order Periodic Generalized Autoregressive Conditional heteroscedasticity processes (PGARCH ⁢ (1, 1) PGARCH (1, 1) for short) in which the parameters in the volatility process are allowed to switch between different regimes. First, we establish necessary and sufficient conditions for a PGARCH ⁢ (1, 1) PGARCH (1, 1) process to have a unique stationary solution (in periodic sense) and for the existence of moments of any order. Next, we are able to estimate the unknown parameters involved in model via the so-called generalized method of moments (GMM). We construct an estimator and establish its asymptotic properties. Specifically, we demonstrate its consistency and asymptotic normality. The GMM estimator in some cases can be more efficient than the least squares estimator (LSE) and the quasi maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE). Some simulation studies are also performed to highlight the impact of our theoretical results.

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