Data-driven model discovery and model selection for noisy biological systems

Abstract Biological systems exhibit complex dynamics that differential equations can often adeptly represent. Ordinary differential equation models are widespread; until recently their construction has required extensive prior knowledge of the system. Machine learning methods offer alternative means of model construction: differential equation models can be learnt from data via model discovery using sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy). However, SINDy struggles with realistic levels of biological noise and does not incorporate prior knowledge of the system. We propose a data-driven framework for model discovery and model selection using hybrid dynamical systems: partial models containing missing terms. Neural networks are used to approximate the unknown dynamics of a system, enabling the denoising the data while simultaneously learning the latent dynamics. Simulations from the fitted neural network are then used to infer models using SINDy. We show, via model selection, that model discovery in SINDy with hybrid dynamical systems outperforms alternative approaches. We find it possible to infer models correctly up to high levels of biological noise of different types. We demonstrate the potential to learn models from sparse, noisy data in application to a canonical cell state transition using data derived from single-cell transcriptomics. Overall, this approach provides a practical framework for model discovery in biology in cases where data are noisy and sparse, of particular utility when the underlying biological mechanisms are partially but incompletely known.