Landsat-based spatiotemporal estimation of subtropical forest aboveground carbon storage using machine learning algorithms with hyperparameter tuning

Introduction The aboveground carbon storage (AGC) in forests serves as a crucial metric for evaluating both the composition of the forest ecosystem and the quality of the forest. It also plays a significant role in assessing the quality of regional ecosystems. However, current technical limitations introduce a degree of uncertainty in estimating forest AGC at a regional scale. Despite these challenges, remote sensing technology provides an accurate means of monitoring forest AGC. Furthermore, the implementation of machine learning algorithms can enhance the precision of AGC estimates. Lishui City, with its rich forest resources and an approximate forest coverage rate of 80%, serves as a representative example of the typical subtropical forest distribution in Zhejiang Province. Methods Therefore, this study uses Landsat remote sensing images, employing backpropagation neural network (BPNN), random forest (RF), and categorical boosting (CatBoost) to model the forest AGC of Lishui City, selecting the best model to estimate and analyze its forest AGC spatiotemporal dynamics over the past 30 years (1989–2019). Results The study shows that: (1) The texture information calculated based on 9×9 and 11×11 windows is an important variable in constructing the remote sensing estimation model of the forest AGC in Lishui City; (2) All three machine learning techniques are capable of estimating forest AGC in Lishui City with high precision. Notably, the CatBoost algorithm outperforms the others in terms of accuracy, achieving a model training accuracy and testing accuracy R 2 of 0.95 and 0.83, and RMSE of 2.98 Mg C ha -1 and 4.93 Mg C ha -1 , respectively. (3) Spatially, the central and southwestern regions of Lishui City exhibit high levels of forest AGC, whereas the eastern and northeastern regions display comparatively lower levels. Over time, there has been a consistent increase in the total forest AGC in Lishui City over the past three decades, escalating from 1.36×10 7 Mg C in 1989 to 6.16×10 7 Mg C in 2019. Discussion This study provided a set of effective hyperparameters and model of machine learning suitable for subtropical forests and a reference data for improving carbon sequestration capacity of subtropical forests in Lishui City.