Uncertainties in Plant Species Niche Modelling Under Climate Change Scenarios

Species distribution models (SDMs) are usually used to predict current species’ geographic distributions and to forecast the impact of climate change, with different aims, such as conservation, and biodiversity management. SDMs use has been increasing in the last decades, however, they are vulnerable to parametrization and data quality input. Thus, inappropriate input can lead to potential unreliability in results. In this context, the most used data and methodologies in SDM, and putative deviations from the consensual best practices, were identified, by analysing recent literature (2018 to 2022). Results show that the parameters presented more consistently are the chosen algorithm (MaxEnt was used in 98% of the studies), the accuracy measures, and the time windows. Many papers fail to specify other parameters, limiting the reproducibility of the studies. Some papers also fail to provide information about the target species: only a fraction of the species range is considered, or no justification for including specific variables in the model is provided. These options can decrease reliability in predictions under future scenarios since data provided to the model is inaccurate from the start or there is insufficient information for outputs discussion.