Dark Matter halo parameters from overheated exoplanets via Bayesian hierarchical inference

Abstract Dark Matter (DM) can become captured, deposit annihilation energy, and hence increase the heat flow in exoplanets and brown dwarfs. Detecting such a DM-induced heating in a population of exoplanets in the inner kpc of the Milky Way thus provides potential sensitivity to the galactic DM halo parameters. We develop a Bayesian Hierarchical Model to investigate the feasibility of DM discovery with exoplanets and examine future prospects to recover the spatial distribution of DM in the Milky Way. We reconstruct from mock exoplanet datasets observable parameters such as exoplanet age, temperature, mass, and location, together with DM halo parameters, for representative choices of measurement uncertainty and the number of exoplanets detected. We find that detection of ℴ(100) exoplanets in the inner Galaxy can yield quantitative information on the galactic DM density profile, under the assumption of 10% measurement uncertainty. Even as few as ℴ(10) exoplanets can deliver meaningful sensitivities if the DM density and inner slope are sufficiently large. https://github.com/mariabenitocst/exoplanets