A CMIP6-ensemble-based evaluation of precipitation and temperature projections

Abstract Understanding climate change’s effects on dam basins is very important for water resource management because of their important role in providing essential functions such as water storage, irrigation, and energy production. This study aims to investigate the impact of climate change on temperature and precipitation variables in the Altınkaya Dam Basin, which holds significant potential for hydroelectric power generation in Türkiye. These potential impacts were investigated by using ERA5 reanalysis data, six GCMs from the current CMIP6 archive, and two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2 − 4.5 and SSP5 − 8.5) scenario data. Four Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) models were developed by using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach (ENS1), simple averaging (ENS2), weighted correlation coefficients (ENS3), and the MARS algorithm (ENS4), and the results were compared to each other. Moreover, quantile delta mapping (QDM) bias correction was used. The 35-year period (1980–2014) was chosen as the reference period, and further evaluations were conducted by dividing it into three future periods (near (2025–2054), mid-far (2055–2084), and far (2085–2100)). Considering the results achieved from the MMEs, variations are expected in the monthly, seasonal, and annual assessments. Projections until the year 2100 indicate that under optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, temperature increases could reach up to 3.11 °C and 5.64 °C, respectively, while precipitation could decrease by as much as 19% and 43%, respectively. These results suggest that the potential changes in temperature and precipitation within the dam basin could significantly impact critical elements such as future water flow and energy production.