Dropout intention: a valid predictor of actual dropout?

Abstract Evidence on the extent to which dropout intention can serve as a valid predictor of dropout decisions remains scarce. This study first presents the results of a systematic literature review of 14 studies examining the relationship between dropout intention and actual dropout in post-secondary education (vocational education and training VET or higher education). Second, we examine a longitudinal dataset of prospective chefs surveyed at the beginning (t1), the second half of the first year (t2), and the second year of the dual VET programme (t3). We examine the relationship between self-reported dropout intention and trainees’ actual dropout behaviour. Additionally, we analyse development profiles of trainees’ dropout intention using latent profile analysis. The review results provide strong support for a significant positive relationship between dropout intention and actual dropout (effect sizes vary between studies and contexts/types of dropout). In line, aspiring chefs’ dropout intention is significantly positively correlated with actual dropout ( r = 0.201). Three development profiles were identified during VET: (1) stable, low dropout intention, (2) stable, medium dropout intention, and (3) increasing dropout intention. We conclude that dropout intention is positively related to actual dropout. As the extent to which dropout intention actually leads to dropout behaviour in VET also depends on external factors (e.g., labour market situation, alternative options), the predictive power of dropout intention may be limited. This is suggested by the weak correlation between dropout intention and actual dropout and the profile of trainees with increasing dropout intention who nevertheless persisted until year 2 of VET.