Topical Trends in Outer Space Cooperation/Competition and Perspectives on Space Law

Introduction. Immanent in all history of space activities cooperation and/or competition are currently subject to significant changes. The most meaningful by impact on activity, its forms, subject content and other features, as well as on relevant international legal and national legal framework including perspectives on their development, are the two emerging international partnerships: China and Russia, primarily on the International Lunar Research Station, as well as with other cooperating states; and the United States with partners on the Artemis Program. Materials and methods. Materials – selected by criterion of fundamental impact on the ‘space law’ development examples of international legal and national legal acts underpinning one of the alternative competing international partnerships on the exploration of the Moon and deep space. Methodology includes analysis, synthesis, analogy, as well as combination of comparative law with systematic methods, and modelling with forecasting. Results. It is justified that: 1) it is reasonable to consider the combination of relevant current factors, trends, and processes (including political, economic, and technological) as the components of the branch-specific coordinate system; 2) timely identification of factors with significant impact on the industry development significantly reduces, or absolutely offsets the negative impact of transformational potential of cooperation/competition in outer space on the efficiency of the industry-related forecasting; 3) factors of fundamental impact on the development of the “space law” system are found in the international legal and national legal approaches behind the two alternative international partnerships; 4) the necessity to determine common basis for diverging legal (and other branch-specific) approaches is grounded on economic feasibility; 5) The conditions/criteria of determination of factors of fundamental impact on the system of ‘space law’ are developed; 6) The feasibility of consideration of the combination of challenging issues of space law as the components of the branch specific legal coordinate system is confirmed; 7) It is revealed that meeting priority issues leads to an updated actualization of other unsettled issues of diverse-level within the system of ‘space law’; It is justified that: 8) under actual trends actualization of branch-specific legal issues and their regulation is less dependent on relevant state’s technological potential and more on inclusion in global economic projects and political processes; 9) consideration of matches and differences under specific criteria between international legal and national legal approaches behind the two alternative international partnerships would bring forecasting on perspectives on ‘space law’ closer to real development. Discussion and conclusion. It is reasonable to consider as conceptual foundations for branch-specific risk management the creation of conditions (primarily of economic, technological and strategic character): for transformation of ‘common denominator’ of international legal and national legal approaches of the two international partnerships to the willingness of competing states to harmonize their positions on additional multilateral treaty regulation of issues subject to international space law; as well as for that competition leads to ‘balancing’ of commitment to international obligations, and inclusive development of diverse elements of the ‘space law’ system.