The influence of aftershocks on seismic hazard analysis: a case study from Xichang and the surrounding areas

Abstract. In some instances, a strong aftershock can cause more damage than the mainshock. Ignoring the influence of aftershocks may lead to the underestimation of the seismic hazard of some areas. Taking Xichang and its surrounding areas as an example and based on the Seismic ground motion parameters zonation map of China (GB 18306-2015), this study used the Monte Carlo method to simulate synthetic mainshock sequences. Additionally, the Omi–Reasenberg–Jones (Omi–R–J) aftershock activity model is used to simulate the aftershock sequences that follow mainshocks above a certain magnitude threshold. Then, the mainshock and the aftershocks are combined to calculate the regional seismic hazard using ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). Finally, the influence of aftershocks on seismic hazard analysis is examined and considered. The results show that in areas with moderate to strong seismic backgrounds, the influence of aftershocks on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis can exceed 50 %. These results suggest that the impact of aftershocks should be properly considered for future probabilistic seismic hazard analyses, especially in areas with moderate to strong seismic activity backgrounds and in areas prone to secondary disasters such as landslides and mudslides.