Intensification and shutdown of deep convection in the Labrador Sea were caused by changes in atmospheric and freshwater dynamics

Abstract Labrador Sea winter convection forms a cold, fresh and dense water mass, Labrador Sea Water, that sinks to the intermediate and deep layers and spreads across the ocean. Convective mixing undergoes multi-year cycles of intensification (deepening) and relaxation (shoaling), which have been also shown to modulate long-term changes in the atmospheric gas uptake by the sea. Here I analyze Argo float and ship-based observations to document the 2012-2023 convective cycle. I find that the highest winter cooling for the 1994-2023 period was in 2015, while the deepest convection for the 1996-2023 period was in 2018. Convective mixing continued to deepen after 2015 because the 2012-2015 winter mixing events preconditioned the water column to be susceptible to deep convection in three more years. The progressively intensified 2012-2018 winter convections generated the largest and densest class of Labrador Sea Water since 1995. Convection weakened afterwards, rapidly shoaling by 800 m per year in the winters of 2021 and 2023. Distinct processes were responsible for these two convective shutdowns. In 2021, a collapse and an eastward shift of the stratospheric polar vortex, and a weakening and a southwestward shift of the Icelandic Low resulted in extremely low surface cooling and convection depth. In 2023, by contrast, convective shutdown was caused by extensive upper layer freshening originated from extreme Arctic sea-ice melt due to Arctic Amplification of Global Warming.