The green space dilemma: Pathways to greening with and without gentrification

Green gentrification posits that urban greening initiatives (e.g., large new parks) can fuel gentrification. To help cities avoid this greening dilemma, this study examines the conditions under which urban greening did or did not promote neighborhood gentrification in Chicago from 2010 to 2020. Using Qualitative Comparative Analysis, we find that a large new park alone did not cause gentrification, but it did when located within areas experiencing gentrification spillover effects and lacking both preexisting green space and government-assisted public housing. Conversely, a large new park in areas that already have adequate green space amounts per resident did not spur gentrification, even if the area has a lower level of government-subsidized public housing. Our findings underscore the role of the preexisting green space infrastructure and the need for a nuanced understanding of the local context when planning and implementing urban greening projects to ensure just outcomes for all residents.