From Climate Crisis to Polycrisis

From Climate Crisis to Polycrisis Richard Heinberg (bio) Click for larger view View full resolution Photo by Ella Ivanescu/Unsplash.com Climate change, resource depletion, extreme weapons, AI, and more: Richard Heinberg looks at the individual threats composing the unprecedented convergence of risk leading us to a global polycrisis. Though he finds no easy answers, he concludes that humanity's collective survival will require setting aside our hubris and coming to terms with environmental and social limits. The Chinese philosopher Sun Tzu wrote that, in warfare, it is essential to know both your enemy and yourself. Today, humanity has "enemies," including climate change and nuclear weapons, that are capable of destroying civilization and whole planetary ecosystems. So far, we are not defeating these enemies—which we ourselves created. Indeed, even more existential risks are coming into view, including the disappearance of wild nature and the proliferation of toxic chemicals that undermine the reproductive health of humans and other creatures. So many new and serious threats are appearing, and so quickly, that a word has come into currency to describe this unprecedented convergence of risk—polycrisis. Our collective inability to reverse the rising tide of risk implies a failure of understanding: we don't know our enemies; moreover, we evidently don't know ourselves, because if we did, we wouldn't continue generating such problems. People have always faced challenges. But what is happening now implies a different scale of consequence. Unless we change the direction and momentum of events, global systems on which humanity depends for its existence will unravel, and civilization with it. It is essential that we step back from whatever we are doing and mentally come to terms with the polycrisis. Three questions demand answers: What is the full spectrum of risks that we face? Why are we failing to manage or reduce these risks? And finally, since these risks are human-generated, why are we creating so many threats to our own future? The Risk Spectrum of the Polycrisis Here are the existential enemies we face: Climate change Greenhouse gases, produced by human activities, principally burning fossil fuels, drive temperatures higher and destabilize weather patterns. A rapidly warming climate will wreak havoc on global food production, make many places uninhabitably hot, and End Page 32 raise sea levels, potentially drowning coastal cities now home to hundreds of millions. Despite decades of international conferences and pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the amounts of CO2 gushing into the atmosphere globally are still rising, not falling. The main solution being proposed is a worldwide energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable sources like wind and solar; however, the current pace of replacement is too slow to avert catastrophic climate impacts, and scaling up renewables sufficiently to supply all energy at current usage levels would require a massive increase in the mining of a wide range of minerals. Disappearance of wild nature While it is technically challenging to gain an accurate understanding of the population status of each of millions of distinct species, it is clear that the total biomass of wild animals is decreasing and that extinction rates are increasing. Insect biomass is estimated to be declining at 1 to 2 percent per year, and the biomass of wild terrestrial vertebrates is now only a tiny percentage of that of humans and domesticates. One cause of these trends is disruption of habitat: as urban areas grow, as forests are cut, and as industrial agriculture expands, wildlife is forced to the margins. Without wild nature, humanity cannot persist. Toxic chemicals Another cause of the disappearance of wild nature is the wide dispersal of toxic chemicals produced by industrial processes. Recent research shows that whole classes of chemicals are disrupting reproduction in humans and other animal species. One recent metastudy concluded that, among men from all continents, the mean sperm count declined by over half between 1973 and 2018, and that chemical exposure was the most likely cause. The study also found that the decline rate, currently about 2 percent per year, is increasing. That trend, if extrapolated, would result in near-universal male sterility by about 2060. Women's reproductive health is also being impacted. The decline of...