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Abstract The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) recently measured the transmission spectrum of K2-18b, a habitable-zone sub-Neptune exoplanet, detecting CH 4 and CO 2 in its atmosphere. The discovery paper argued the data are best explained by a habitable “Hycean” world, consisting of a relatively thin H 2 -dominated atmosphere overlying a liquid water ocean. Here, we use photochemical and climate models to simulate K2-18b as both a Hycean planet and a gas-rich mini-Neptune with no defined surface. We find that a lifeless Hycean world is hard to reconcile with the JWST observations because photochemistry only supports <1 part-per-million CH 4 in such an atmosphere while the data suggest about ∼1% of the gas is present. Sustaining percent-level CH 4 on a Hycean K2-18b may require the presence of a methane-producing biosphere, similar to microbial life on Earth ∼3 billion years ago. On the other hand, we predict that a gas-rich mini-Neptune with 100× solar metallicity should have 4% CH 4 and nearly 0.1% CO 2 , which are compatible with the JWST data. The CH 4 and CO 2 are produced thermochemically in the deep atmosphere and mixed upward to the low pressures sensitive to transmission spectroscopy. The model predicts H 2 O, NH 3 , and CO abundances broadly consistent with the nondetections. Given the additional obstacles to maintaining a stable temperate climate on Hycean worlds due to H 2 escape and potential supercriticality at depth, we favor the mini-Neptune interpretation because of its relative simplicity and because it does not need a biosphere or other unknown source of methane to explain the data.
Wogan et al. (Tue,) studied this question.