Uncertain Policies, Unsure Futures? Unraveling the Impact of Policy Shocks on SDG Achievements: A Case Study of 21 Countries

ABSTRACT This study examines the effect of policy uncertainty on sustainable development goal (SDG) performance across 21 major countries from 2002 to 2022. This research emphasizes economic policy uncertainty (EPU), energy policy uncertainty (ENPU), and ESG‐related policy uncertainty (SUI) while also considering governance quality and structural factors like GDP per capita and population density. This research utilizes balanced panel data and applies FMOLS, DOLS, and quantile regressions. This study captures overall trends and variations across countries. The findings reveal that higher energy and EPU tend to decrease SDG performance, especially in lower‐performing countries. ESG‐related uncertainty mostly affects countries with median SDG levels. When analyzed by development status, developed countries show stronger negative effects of energy and ESG‐related uncertainties, whereas developing countries sometimes experience positive SDG outcomes under certain policy uncertainties. Moreover, good governance through effective institutions, anti‐corruption measures, and political stability helps progress SDG outcomes and alleviates the negative effects of policy uncertainty. Furthermore, countries with higher GDP per capita and population density generally achieve better SDG outcomes. In general, the study highlights the importance of stable policies, strong institutions, and tailored interventions for advancing sustainable development, offering practical guidance for policymakers navigating uncertainty.