Optimized Hybrid Deep Learning Framework for Reliable Multi-Horizon Photovoltaic Power Forecasting in Smart Grids

Accurate short-term forecasting of photovoltaic (PV) output is critical to managing the variability of PV generation and ensuring reliable grid operation with high renewable integration. We propose an enhanced hybrid deep learning framework that combines Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCNs), Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs), and Random Forests (RFs) in an optimized weighted ensemble strategy. This approach leverages the complementary strengths of each component: TCNs capture long-range temporal dependencies via dilated causal convolutions; GRUs model sequential weather-driven dynamics; and RFs enhance robustness to outliers and nonlinear relationships. The model was evaluated on high-resolution operational data from the Yulara solar plant in Australia, forecasting horizons from 5 min to 1 h. Results show that the TCN-GRU-RF model consistently outperforms conventional benchmarks, achieving R2 = 0.9807 (MAE = 0.0136; RMSE = 0.0300) at 5 min and R2 = 0.9047 (RMSE = 0.0652) at 1 h horizons. Notably, the degradation in R2 across forecasting horizons was limited to 7.7%, significantly lower than the typical 10–15% range observed in the literature, highlighting the model’s scalability and resilience. These validated results indicate that the proposed approach provides a robust, scalable forecasting solution that enhances grid reliability and supports the integration of distributed renewable energy sources.